Solana volatility at a minimum: the lowest level in the last five years

The volatility of the price of $SOL (Solana) over the last 30 days has collapsed to 14%, and the annualized volatility has fallen below 50%.

The current level is one of the lowest in the last 5 years.

Price volatility refers to how much it changes over a given period, because it indicates how “agitated” it is.

Volatility

Measuring volatility is interesting because it is also at the same time an indirect measure of the level of risk.

In fact, the higher the volatility, the more there are strong price swings that increase risk, while when it is low there are calmer and more predictable movements.

However, it should be specified that in addition to historical volatility (that is, the volatility already realized), there is also the so-called implied volatility, which instead measures how much volatility the market expects for the future, and is derived from option prices.

The standard formula for realized volatility uses the standard deviation of daily percentage moves, and then annualizes it to make the values comparable.

From a strictly mathematical point of view, the calculation is not exactly trivial, so much so that pre-programmed algorithms are used to measure it.

In addition to annualized volatility, 30-day volatility is also often used, which is precisely the standard deviation over 30 days not annualized.

Non-annualized 30-day volatility measures the standard deviation of daily price changes scaled to the 30-day period, and in fact indicates how much the price has fluctuated in that particular month.

Solana’s volatility

In the last 30 days the price of $SOL has moved mainly between $78 and $91.

In reality, the fluctuation range of the last month has often remained stuck between $82 and $85, with brief excursions above and below these levels.

For example, if you take the daily averages from April 7 to today, the fluctuation has been between $83 and $86, with no excursion below $83, and only five days above $86.

All this corresponds to volatility over the last 30 days equal to 14%.

Instead, the annualized volatility is normal, that is between 40% and 50%.

This means that the last 30 days have been unusual for the price trend of Solana, but not the last twelve months.

Similar levels of low 30-day volatility had already occurred between the end of 2025 and the beginning of 2026, but this was partly due to the year-end holidays.

However, even in some months of 2024 and in mid-2025 the price moved in narrow ranges without major market shocks. Even after the 2022–2023 bottom there were moments of relative calm before the subsequent rebounds.

The fact is that typically Solana’s volatility is higher than that of, for example, Bitcoin, which serves as a benchmark for crypto markets. However, it varies greatly depending on the market cycle, so much so that during accumulation or consolidation phases it is lower, only to explode during strong trends or important events.

The price of Solana

Between the end of 2023 and the first quarter of 2024 the price of Solana rose from $20 to over $200 with an incredible +1,000% in just over six months.

However, it took the Trump-trade at the end of 2024 to push it towards new all-time highs, reached in January 2025 at almost $300.

Therefore, during the rest of 2025, while for example Bitcoin and Ethereum were setting new all-time highs in October and August respectively, the price of Solana was essentially moving sideways.

$SOL’s volatility in these months was pronounced, but it was no longer able to remain steadily above $250.

Indeed, just before mid-October it entered a bear market, where it in fact still is now.

The first crash stopped in December, around $120, but in the second half of January 2026 another one began, which then ended in early February below $70.

Since then it has done nothing but move sideways within a range between $76 and $93, with a single small exception in mid-March when it tried to approach $100 again, failing within a few days.

Therefore, in reality it has now been three months that $SOL’s volatility has been reduced, except that in the last thirty days it has compressed further, setting new local lows not far from the all-time lows.

Starting from April 8 it even fell to 11%, and from April 18 it also fell below 8%. In cases like these, price compression often eventually results in a jump, only it is not known in which direction it might occur.