XRP Repeating the Trendline Retest Pattern That Previously Led to the March Upsurge

$XRP appears to be repeating the same downward-sloping trendline retest pattern that previously led to its early March upsurge.

$XRP has continued to struggle after pulling back from the March 17 high of $1.60, which it attained on the back of the broader market rebound push as the U.S.-Iran conflict progressed. Since then, the price has fallen by more than 16%, currently trading at $1.33.

However, Swarmik, an accomplished trader who entered an $XRP short position earlier this month, has called attention to a similar pattern involving a sloping trendline retest that previously led to the March rally.

Key Points

• $XRP has collapsed more than 16% from the March 17 high of $1.60 amid the ongoing correction.
• This builds on the downtrend that began in October 2025, with $XRP already down 63% from its July 2025 all-time high.
• Since mid-February, $XRP has been trading below a downward-sloping trendline, which has acted as resistance.
• Before the rally to the March high, $XRP retested this trendline three times.
• This month, $XRP has retested the trendline resistance two times already, now eyeing a third approach.

$XRP Pulls Back After March Peak

Swarmik presented the recent analysis as an update to a previous disclosure, in which he confirmed profiting from last month’s $XRP short position. At the time of his earlier disclosure, $XRP had dropped 17% since he entered the short position.

This time, however, Swarmik admitted that following the initial drop, the price has begun consolidating on medium timeframes. For context, he presented his short as $XRP rallied alongside the market to the March 17 peak of $1.6. After this peak, it recorded a massive pullback, dropping 20% to $1.27 by April 5.

Price Eyes Third Trendline Retest

While the price has recovered from this early-April low, $XRP still changes hands around $1.33, down 16.8% from the March 17 peak. According to Swarmik, $XRP has now started consolidating, but there’s nothing to be concerned about for now.

He stressed that he has started observing an interesting pattern on the chart. Specifically, the analyst called attention to a downward-sloping trendline that has acted as resistance for $XRP since it collapsed from the $1.67 high on Feb. 15.

Amid the latest recovery push that started after the April 5 low of $1.27, $XRP has retested this trendline twice. The first retest played out when the price hit $1.39 on April 7 and pulled back. Meanwhile, the second retest occurred as $XRP recently rose to $1.375 over the weekend. Each attempt faced resistance at the trendline and failed to break through.

Swarmik expects a third attempt to retest this same trendline, but believes $XRP could again face a roadblock and pull back. However, suggests that this would help build strength for a decisive push above the trendline later on. “I’m not feeling optimistic, but a small rally is possible,” he remarked.

Historical Context

Swarmik’s optimism comes from historical data confirming a similar occurrence just last month. Notably, after crashing from the $1.67 high in mid-February, $XRP recovered and retested the trendline three times: at $1.49 on Feb. 25, at $1.47 on March 4, and then at $1.45 on March 13.

Each of the three attempts failed, but following the third one, $XRP staged an upward push that pushed above the trendline resistance, leading to the March 17 top of $1.6. This represented an over 13% increase from the breakout point. Swarmik expects the same pattern to play out after the third attempt. However, this remains highly speculative.