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The US has postponed planned strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure to April 6, favoring diplomacy over immediate action. The US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 market is at 7.5% YES, down from 8% yesterday and 26% a week ago.
This delay indicates the US is still exploring diplomatic solutions. The April 15 market is at 18.5% YES, and the April 30 market is at 36.5% YES. A notable jump occurs between April 30 and May 31, suggesting traders expect a significant event in early May. The term structure shows increasing optimism, with a 19-point rise between April 30 and May 31.
Ceasefire markets are active, with $7.4M in total face value traded in the last 24 hours and $1.4M in USDC. Market depth is strong, needing $31,494 to move April 7 odds by 5 points. A 2-point drop at 8:13 AM today reflects reassessment of a near-term ceasefire.
For traders, the strike delay is a pause, not a strategy change. Odds show skepticism about a quick ceasefire. At 7.5¢, a YES share for an April 7 ceasefire pays $1 if it resolves, offering a 13.3x return. This is high-risk without imminent diplomatic progress.
Watch for announcements from Oman or Qatar, or changes in US-Iran rhetoric. These could shift ceasefire odds. Any scheduled talks or diplomatic breakthroughs would likely impact markets.
Markets Impacted
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 7.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 18.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 36.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 55.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 63.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 73.5% YES
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