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Market analysis suggests it is becoming increasingly likely that $XRP needs to drop below the $1 area before it can gather strength to flip the bearish trend.
$XRP has faced bearish pressure alongside the rest of the crypto market over the past few months. This ongoing downturn, which picked up pace in Q4 2025, has led to a 50% decline in $XRP’s price, trading for $1.41 at the time of this press.
However, despite the deep correction, market data suggests $XRP still has more room to drop further before it can comfortably turn the bearish situation around. Specifically, $XRP currently trades within a Wave 2 phase, with the imminent Wave 3 potentially pushing prices to the $0.87 to $1.09 range.
Key Points
- $XRP has dropped 50% since the ongoing market-wide turbulence began in Q4 2025, currently trading for $1.41.
- Data suggests $XRP may still see steeper declines below $1 before it can gather strength to flip the bearish trend.
- $XRP now trades within an ABC sub-wave in a larger Wave 2 structure.
- This C sub-wave would mark the end of the larger Wave 2, setting the stage for the corrective third wave.
- Wave 3 could result in steeper declines to a range between $0.87 and $1.09 before $XRP eventually recovers from the downturn.
$XRP Trading Within ABC Sub-Wave
This is according to an analysis from Casi, a prominent market commentator, as she shares an update to her long-standing market exposition. According to Casi, she is still tracking $XRP’s current Wave 2 structure, which split into an ABC sub-structure that has dictated the crypto asset’s price action in recent days.
Looking at the 1-hour chart shared by Casi, data shows $XRP completed a corrective Wave 1 when it dropped from the March 17 peak of $1.60 to a floor price of $1.36 by March 23.
From here, what followed was a Wave 2 upward push. However, this second wave split into an ABC sub-structure that has played out as expected since March 23. Specifically, sub-wave A pushed $XRP’s price to a high of $1.46, while the B sub-wave resulted in a correction from the $1.46 high to a low of $1.38.
Casi expected the B sub-wave to lead to deep corrections, but not as deep as the $1.38 low. Now, with $XRP reaching this floor, the analyst insists that the structure remains valid, especially considering Bitcoin (BTC) also respected its own B wave.
What Next for $XRP?
According to Casi’s chart, after the conclusion of the B sub-wave, $XRP would rebound with sub-wave C. Interestingly, this appears to be playing out now, as $XRP recovers to the current price of $1.41 at press time.
Considering the current market realities, the analyst adjusted the target of the C wave upsurge to a high of $1.485, aligning with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, instead of the earlier target of $1.51, which aligned with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
The conclusion of the C sub-wave would culminate in the completion of the larger Wave 2. From here, Casi expects $XRP to correct from the $1.485 high in the upcoming Wave 3, projecting much deeper declines. According to her, this Wave 3 pullback would push prices to a range between $0.87 to $1.09. At this level, $XRP would then gather enough strength to finally rebound and flip the bearish trend. Casi said it is now likely this correction must play out first.
What Could Break the Structure?
At the same time, Casi called attention to certain developments that could break this current structure and render the analysis invalid. First, if the current decline pushes $XRP below the $1.36 support area, this would invalidate the Wave 2 structure.
Moreover, if $XRP recovers above the $1.65 price level when it has not yet slumped to the $0.87 to $1.09 range, the suggestion that it would have to decline to this area first would become invalid. Interestingly, EGRAG Crypto, another analyst, also recently identified the importance of the $1.65 mark.
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