XRP Price Drops 4%, but Evernorth’s Treasury Play Still Supports Breakout Case

The crypto market has dropped over 4% in the past 24 hours. The $XRP price has followed, falling by a similar margin. Still, it holds around 7% gains over the past week. What stands out is that $XRP remains down over the past 30 days. This shows the broader trend is still weak.

At the same time, a new institutional demand narrative is quietly building. This puts $XRP at a key moment where weakness and opportunity are both present.

$XRP Structure Weakens Near $1.43 but Bullish Divergence Signals Hope

$XRP’s price still follows a cup-and-handle pattern. This pattern usually signals a move higher, but the current handle is starting to weaken. The key level now sits at $1.43. This level acts as support for the pattern. A daily close below it would break the structure and end the setup.

So while the pattern remains active, it is under pressure.

At the same time, momentum is showing early signs of strength. Between late January and mid-March, $XRP formed a lower low. But the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum indicator, formed a higher low. This creates a bullish divergence.

A bullish divergence means selling pressure is fading even as the price drops, hinting at a reversal of the broader downtrend. The same signal appeared earlier between late January and early March. That move led to a rally of more than 20%.

Now the same setup is forming again.

This suggests that despite the recent drop, $XRP may still attempt another move higher. If that happens, it could be the push needed to break above the key resistance. But for that move to sustain, the broader market structure must support it.

Leverage Drops While Selling Pressure Continues to Ease

Market data shows that leverage has cooled significantly.

Open interest, which tracks total futures positions, dropped from around $975 million to $847 million, a decline of roughly 13.1%. At the same time, funding rates fell from about 0.0015 to 0.0011, marking a drop of over 26%.

A similar setup appeared earlier in March. At that time, open interest dropped toward $764 million, and funding turned negative before $XRP moved higher.

OI And Funding Rate: Santiment

Spot activity also supports the idea of reduced selling pressure.

Exchange net position data shows continued outflows. On March 8, outflows stood near -47.4 million $XRP, while recent data shows deeper outflows of around -115.2 million $XRP. This suggests stronger accumulation compared to the previous rally phase.

$XRP Spot Flow">

$XRP Spot Flow: Glassnode

At the same time, short-term holders have reduced their exposure sharply. HODL waves, which track how long coins are held, show that the 1-week to 1-month cohort dropped from around 5.24% of supply on March 1 to 1.36% now, a decline of nearly 74%. The supply for this cohort has now dropped to a yearly low, hinting at steady exit for speculative money.

This indicates that short-term traders have already taken profits and exited positions.

So the market now has:

• lower leverage (down almost 13%)
• weaker bullish positioning (funding down almost 26%)
• stronger outflows (more than 2x compared to early March)
• reduced short-term supply (down almost 74%)

This combination often supports consolidation instead of further downside. Alongside this, Evernorth is working on a Nasdaq-linked $XRP treasury structure, hinting at potential long-term institutional demand. This could help surface a MicroStrategy-like narrative, but for $XRP. It seems that this sentimental driver has managed to keep the spot outflows intact.

With pressure easing, the next move now depends on key price levels.

$XRP Price Levels: $1.60 Break Could Unlock 30% Move

$XRP is now trading between two important levels. On the upside, $1.60 remains the key resistance. A break above this level would confirm the pattern and could push $XRP toward $2.08. If momentum continues, the move could extend toward $2.32.

On the downside, $1.43 remains critical support. A break below this level would invalidate the structure and shift the trend lower.

For now, $XRP sits in a balanced position.

Momentum is improving, leverage has dropped, and selling pressure has eased. At the same time, the $XRP price remains under resistance and close to support.

This makes the next move decisive.

If $1.43 holds and $1.60 breaks, the $XRP price could enter a stronger recovery phase. But if support fails first, the breakout setup will collapse before it can fully play out.

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