The worst may lie ahead. Bitcoin chart revisits historic pattern.

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Uh-oh, the bitcoin $BTC$67,963.04 price pattern that presaged the final and deepest phases of previous bear markets has appeared again.

In mid-November 2018, CoinDesk discussed a bearish flip in long-term averages on a chart that bundles three days of price action into each candle. It warned that a similar occurrence in 2014 deepened the bear market and, within a week, bitcoin crashed to under $4,500 from $6,000, extending the decline from the peak of roughly $20,000.

Cut to April 2022. The same pattern occurred, with the same result. $BTC's bear market deepened and prices cratered to $17,500 from $32,000, having already dropped from the late 2021 record of nearly $70,000.

Now, the pattern's back again (check the Technical Analysis section). While past performance is not a guarantee of future results, history calls for caution. Some savvy traders are preparing for a deeper crash below $60,000.

Bitcoin recently traded near $66,100, down 3% in 24 hours. Other major tokens and the CoinDesk 20 Index lost even more. Still, U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs have pulled in over $1 billion in three days.

"That breadth of demand signals absorption rather than speculation," Iliya Kalchev, an analyst at Nexo Dispatch, said in an email. "On-chain data reinforces the shift: wallets holding more than 10,000 Bitcoin have accumulated through the recent pullback from the $70,000 region, suggesting long-term holders are stepping in as supply thins."

Even so, ETF flows need to persist to lift $BTC sustainably higher, Kalchev said.

In traditional markets, oil prices remain supported by U.S.-Iran uncertainty and the potential for an escalation over the weekend. Stay alert!

Read more: For analysis of today's activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today

What to Watch

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".

• Crypto
  • Nothing scheduled.
• Macro
  • Feb. 27, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. PPI MoM for January est. 0.3% (Prev. 0.5%); Core PPI MoM est. 0.3% (Prev. 0.7%)
  • Feb. 27, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. PPI YoY for January est. 2.9% (Prev. 3%)
  • Feb. 27, 8:30 a.m.: Canada GDP growth rate annualized for Q4 (Prev. 2.6%); QoQ (Prev. 0.6%)
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
  • Nothing scheduled.

Token Events

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".

• Governance votes & calls
  • 1inch DAO is voting to allocate 2,000,000 USDC from its treasury to the Aave V3 market on Ethereum to generate yield. Voting ends March 1.
• Unlocks
  • Feb. 28: Grass (GRASS) to unlock 13.15% of its circulating supply worth $10.09 million.
  • Feb. 28: Jupiter (JUP) to unlock 7.94% of its circulating supply worth $39.34 million.
  • March 1: SUI$0.9176 to unlock 1.13% of its circulating supply worth $40.97 million.
• Token Launches
  • Feb. 27: Fabric Protocol (ROBO) to be listed on Binance, Bybit, Bitget, KuCoin, and others.

Conferences

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".

• Day 3 of 4: GFTN Forum Japan (Tokyo)
• Feb. 27: Wave of Innovation (Sydney, Australia)

Market Movements

• $BTC is unchanged from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $67,423.09 (24hrs: -0.95%)
• $ETH is down 0.89%at $2,012.51 (24hrs: -2%)
• CoinDesk 20 is unchanged at 1,968.26 (24hrs: -2.49%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 4 bps at 2.89%
• $BTC funding rate is at -0.006% (-6.5799% annualized) on Binance

• DXY is unchanged at 97.74
• Gold futures are unchanged at $5,191.50
• Silver futures are up 2.82% at $90.05
• Nikkei 225 closed up 0.16% at 58,850.27
• Hang Seng closed up 0.95% at 26,630.54
• FTSE is up 0.39% at 10,888.78
• Euro Stoxx 50 is unchanged at 6,161.33
• DJIA closed on Thursday up 0.03% at 49,499.20
• S&P 500 closed down 0.54% at 6,908.86
• Nasdaq Composite closed down 1.18% at 22,878.38
• S&P/TSX Composite closed up 1.1% at 34,501.96
• S&P 40 Latin America closed down 1.4% at 3,772.90
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is down 3 bps at 3.987%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.28% at 6,900.75
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.19% at 25,033.75
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are down 0.48% at 49,294.00
  

Bitcoin Stats

• $BTC Dominance: 58.49% (-0.11%)
• Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.02973 (-1.06%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,055 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $29.31
• Total fees: 3.43 $BTC / $232,808
• CME Futures Open Interest: 107,780 $BTC
• $BTC priced in gold: 12.8 oz.
• $BTC vs gold market cap: 4.46%

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin's long-term moving averages have crossed bearish just as in 2018, 2022. (TradingView)

• The chart shows $BTC's price swings on a three-day time frame in candlestick format from 2024-2025 and 2018-2022. Each candle bundles the price action seen over three days, or 72 hours.
• On this chart, moving averages of 50- and 200-candles have crossed bearish.
• Similar patterns led to deeper slides in 2014, 2018 and 2022.

Crypto Equities

• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Thursday at $181.06 (-1.57%), unchanged in pre-market
• Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $87.21 (+4.90%), unchanged in pre-market
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $21.94 (-3.90%)
• Bullish (BLSH): closed at $32.73 (-0.49%), unchanged in pre-market
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $8.45 (-1.40%), +15.98% at $9.80
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $17.09 (+0.06%), +0.12% at $17.11
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $17.98 (-0.55%), -1.50% at $17.71
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $10.44 (-0.10%), -0.77% at $10.36
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $42.17 (-0.40%)
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $10.45 (-1.69%)

Crypto Treasury Companies

• Strategy (MSTR): closed at $133.40 (-1.66%), +0.62% at $134.23
• Strive (ASST): closed at $8.19 (-4.10%), +0.24% at $8.21
• SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $7.21 (-3.09%), +0.55% at $7.25
• Upexi (UPXI): closed at $0.76 (-7.87%), +0.22% at $0.76
• Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.14 (-3.39%)

ETF Flows

Spot $BTC ETFs

• Daily net flows: $254.4 million
• Cumulative net flows: $54.81 billion
• Total $BTC holdings ~1.27 million

Spot $ETH ETFs

• Daily net flows: $6.6 million
• Cumulative net flows: $11.68 billion
• Total $ETH holdings ~5.72 million

Source: Farside Investors

While You Were Sleeping

• With possible Iran strike looming, U.S. says staff can leave Israel, urging speed (The New York Times): In an email to embassy workers Friday morning, Ambassador Mike Huckabee warned them that if they wanted to leave Israel, they “should do so TODAY.”
• Treasuries regain edge as safety play with best month in year (Bloomberg): U.S. bonds are wrapping up their best monthly performance in a year against a backdrop of rising global risks, with resurgent demand proving investors still see Treasuries as the best haven in turbulent times.
• Analysis: Block’s retreat to 2019 scale could be a hint of deeper shifts in payments economics (CoinDesk): Jack Dorsey says AI allows smaller teams to move faster. While that's true, the reset may reflect a tougher reality: stablecoin rails are likely beginning to compress the card-based fees that fueled the company’s expansion.