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$XRP has continued to trade within a 13-year ascending channel that appears to be guiding prices toward the Fibonacci level, aligning with $18.
The broader crypto market downtrend has had a massive impact on $XRP’s price action. For context, $XRP, which soared to a peak price of $3.66 by July 2025, has now dropped to $1.47 amid five consecutive months of losses. The current price marks a 59.8% decline from the July 2025 all-time high.
Interestingly, despite the persistent declines, $XRP has maintained a position within an ascending channel that has guided its price action since 2013. If $XRP remains within this channel, chart data indicates that the structure could lead to the 361.8% Fibonacci extension, which aligns with an $18 price.
Key Points
- While $XRP has lost nearly 60% of its value since the July 2025 peak of $3.66, the asset has maintained a position within a pivotal ascending channel on the monthly chart.
- This ascending channel, which started forming as early as 2013, has continued to guide $XRP’s price action over the past 13 years.
- The monthly chart indicates that the channel could lead $XRP to the 361.8% Fibonacci extension level, which aligns with a price of $18.
- $XRP currently eyes a retest of the lower trendline of the channel, as it trades in the fourth phase of a 5-phase Elliott Wave structure.
- If $XRP holds inside the ascending channel when Wave 4 completes, the fifth wave could lead to the expected $18 price.
The 13-Year $XRP Ascending Channel
Dark Defender, a well-known market commentator, called attention to this ascending channel amid waning investor sentiment, as the market looks for a solid bottom. For context, this ascending channel started forming as far back as 2013, when $XRP began trading in the open market.
While $XRP has remained within the channel ever since, there have been two occasions when it slipped outside the structure: once to the downside, and then to the upside.
Notably, each of these occasions led to steeper price movements in the prevailing direction, confirming that the upper and lower trendlines of the channel had served as dependable resistance and support levels. For instance, a drop below the channel in late 2015 led to rapid losses, while the surge above in January 2018 resulted in a run to $3.31.
Elliott Waves Within the Ascending Channel
After initially pushing above the channel in January 2018, $XRP corrected and slipped back into the structure days later. Since then, it has remained within the channel. Data shows that the price action in the channel has followed two distinct Elliott Wave structures since 2018.
First, $XRP witnessed an ABC correction from the 2018 peak of $3.31. Specifically, Wave A involved a dump from $3.31 in January 2018 to $0.11 by March 2020. Wave B emerged immediately after and took prices from $0.11 to $1.96 in April 2021. From here, Wave C triggered another dump that pushed the $XRP price to $0.29 by June 2022.
After the ABC corrective wave completed, $XRP kick-started a standard 5-wave structure. Notably, Wave 1 led to a rise toward $0.93 in July 2023, and Wave 2 triggered a correction to $0.38 by July 2024. Interestingly, this Wave 2 low retested the lower trendline of the channel, and the response was a massive upsurge in Wave 3.
Specifically, $XRP soared from the $0.38 low to a peak of $3.4 by January 2025, completing Wave 3. From here, another correction ensued in Wave 4, and this has led to the ongoing downtrend that $XRP currently faces. If $XRP slips further to retest the lower trendline of the channel and find support, this could mark the end of Wave 4 and a possible upsurge in Wave 5.
Channel Points to Fib. 361.8% at $18
Data from Dark Defender’s chart indicates that such an upsurge could push $XRP toward the top of the ascending channel, which now aligns with $18 situated at the 361.8% Fibonacci extension level. $XRP would need to increase 1,116% from the current price of $1.48 to reach $18.
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