Prediction Markets Hit New Records as Coinbase Enters the Sector

Coinbase, one of the world’s leading cryptocurrency exchanges, has officially launched its prediction market offering for American users.

The rollout comes as prediction markets continue to gain traction, with weekly notional volume, transaction activity, and user participation reaching new records.

Coinbase Launches Prediction Markets Across All 50 US States

Coinbase announced on Tuesday that its prediction market product is now available to customers in all 50 US states via its partnership with Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated platform recently valued at $11 billion.

The feature is available on the latest version of the Coinbase app. Users can access the new “Predict” tab to place wagers on outcomes across sports, politics, entertainment, economic events, and more.

Coinbase first revealed plans to enter the prediction market sector in December. This initiative is part of the firm’s vision to be an all-in-one financial platform, an “everything exchange.”

“Listed futures and swaps are offered by Coinbase Financial Markets (“CFM”), a NFA member firm. Trading prediction contracts involve substantial risk and may result in the loss of your entire investment. Contracts pay out only if the specified event occurs. Trade only if you understand the product and believe it is appropriate for your financial situation and objectives,” the exchange wrote.

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong also weighed in on the broader significance of prediction markets, describing them as a powerful tool for uncovering the truth.

“Prediction markets are the ultimate form of truth seeking. When there’s skin in the game, the output is far more reliable. Everything else is biased by someone’s agenda. I think we’ll look back at prediction markets as a breakthrough in how we discover truth in the world,” he posted.

Record Growth in Prediction Markets

Meanwhile, Coinbase’s entry into the sector comes as prediction markets are seeing record-breaking growth. According to the latest data from Dune, weekly notional trading volume reached $6.18 billion, marking a new all-time high.

Prediction Market Weekly Notional Volume. Source: Dune

Weekly active users climbed to over 357,000, while transactions hit a record 26 million. Sports have emerged as the largest category by volume on both Kalshi and Polymarket, followed by crypto and politics-related markets.

Nonetheless, high-conviction crypto trading on prediction markets has declined since early January, according to on-chain analysis from BeInCrypto. The data, which tracks wallets actively placing orders and providing liquidity on Polymarket, shows two engagement peaks in late December and early January, followed by a steady cooldown.

The pullback extends to Bitcoin-focused markets, indicating a broader reduction in risk appetite rather than a drop in casual participation.