Russian analysts say a crypto crash is not imminent but possible

A cryptocurrency crash is one of the “black swan” events that may hurt the world’s economy this year, according to a Russian report.

The authors of the outlook paper think a collapse of the market for digital assets would have negative effects similar to those of a euro debt crisis.

Russia considers crypto crash a major risk for economic stability

A crypto market crash could become a black swan event in the coming months, believes the Roscongress Foundation, a leading Russian development institute.

While this is currently unlikely to happen, it would certainly cause a lot of stress for other markets, if it does, the body warns in its “Key Events 2026. Geoeconomics. Forecasts. Main Risks” report.

The foundation is behind some of Russia’s main economic conferences, including the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF), the Eastern Economic Forum, the Russian Energy Week, and the Eurasian Economic Forum.

The same applies to other potential developments such as a sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone, a Chinese military assault on Taiwan, or a large-scale “tanker war” in the seas, the organization noted.

If they occur, however, the consequences for the global economy will be significant, Roscongress emphasized, quoted by the RIA Novosti News agency and the business news publication RBC.

“Black swans” are usually hard to predict and can be of various natures, such as a major financial meltdown or a global pandemic, for example. Adding crypto to the mix of potential risks is highlighting its growing weight in this context.

Against this backdrop, Roscongress commented:

“Among the potential ‘black swan’ events is a cryptocurrency market crash. Currently, this seems unlikely. Forecasts for Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency, suggest a continued bullish trend.”

A growing number of institutional investors are buying Bitcoin, the foundation remarked, pointing out it does not expect this trend to slow down. Lower interest rates could also positively impact the prices of crypto assets, it added.

But in the case of a crash, regulatory bodies and monetary authorities would not be unable to cope with the stress, given Bitcoin’s increasing integration into the financial system, the institution concluded in its report.

Other scenarios also pose significant risks

The Russian analysts have elaborated on the other candidates for “black swans.” While China is not likely to attack Taiwan this year, a move in that direction would bring major shifts in the geopolitical and geoeconomic landscape.

An unexpected failure of the stimulus measures in Germany, Europe’s economic powerhouse, along with a political impasse in France, could trigger an outflow of capital from the European Union, they also noted.

Such developments are going to bump risk premiums on the Old Continent, where the current levels of debt are already raising serious concerns about the sustainability of public finances.

The Russian institute also referenced one of its earlier studies, released in November, which suggested the United States is trying to solve its debt problem through the adoption of the GENIUS Act. The latter requires issuers of dollar-denominated stablecoins to hold U.S. government bonds in their reserves.

“One of the goals of the U.S. President’s team is to attract a new group of investors to the Treasury securities market. They have traditionally avoided investing in Treasuries to escape government control, but are readily investing in cryptocurrency instruments,” Roscongress stated.

The foundation pondered further that “a serious risk to the global economy could be the possibility of a sharp increase in attacks on ships and the outbreak of a large-scale ‘tanker war.’” Such a clash would seriously disrupt supply chains and negatively affect global trade.

Overall, the Russian experts predict that the world economy will experience less turbulence in 2026, compared to the previous year, while admitting growth rates will likely be among the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis.