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Shiba Inu is getting close to a technical setup that frequently results in what traders refer to as a free move, which is a quick push with little resistance that is primarily motivated by structure rather than fundamentals.
The price of $SHIB is currently compressed between a rising ascending trendline below and the 50 EMA overhead, forming a tightening ramp that is unlikely to resolve sideways for very long under current conditions. The price has performed poorly, but in a controlled manner, over recent weeks, suggesting pressure is building rather than dissipating.
$SHIB stays locked in
Despite being clearly below the 100 and 200 EMAs, $SHIB remains locked in a wider downtrend; however, sellers have not been able to push the asset to new lows. Instead, the price has repeatedly pushed into the 50 EMA while continuing to carve out higher lows along the rising trendline, creating a visible compression zone.
Rather than resolving through a slow drift, this type of squeeze typically ends with a noticeable increase in volatility once price is forced to choose a direction. The 50 EMA is the primary trigger level in this structure. A clear break above it would almost certainly open the door to an 8-10% upside move — not because $SHIB suddenly becomes powerful or fundamentally strong, but because there is very little structural resistance immediately above that level.
Market's recovery
A brief acceleration phase would likely follow, driven by momentum traders piling in late and forcing short-term sellers positioned at the 50 EMA to unwind their exposure. This mechanical process is the real source of the so-called free spike, and it is driven by positioning and structure rather than any broader macro or narrative shift.
The initial break typically continues until the price reaches a true wall, at which point it becomes trapped between rising support and falling resistance. Unfortunately for bulls, the 100 EMA is where that wall is located in this setup. The 100 EMA above remains a strong and well-established resistance level, even if $SHIB successfully breaks the 50 EMA and rallies into that zone.
This area aligns with the larger downtrend structure and has previously capped price advances multiple times, reinforcing its importance. Expecting a smooth continuation beyond it without a significant change in broader market conditions would be optimistic at best and unsupported by the existing structure.
Momentum indicators support this interpretation. RSI remains neutral rather than overheated, which allows for additional upside without immediate fatigue, but does not signal a regime shift. Volume has also remained largely subdued, which is typical behavior ahead of expansion phases and volatility releases.
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