There Is No XRP Supply Shock on Exchanges—Analyst Says

A crypto analyst has pushed back against growing claims that XRP is facing a supply shock. According to him, that fear is being overstated.

He says around 16 billion XRP is already sitting on exchanges, ready to be traded. He argues, it would be sufficient for buyers who want exposure to XRP right now.

Moving XRP Takes Seconds, Not Days

Even when XRP is held off exchanges, supply can quickly reappear. The analyst explained that anyone holding XRP in a private wallet can send it to an exchange in just three to four seconds. Because of this speed, available supply can change almost instantly depending on market conditions.

Order Books Change Fast

XRP’s order books are not fixed. They expand and shrink all the time.

Sometimes, a $10 million buy order is enough to push prices higher. Other times, even $100 million in buying fails to stop a decline. This shows how fluid XRP trading is and why price moves can’t be explained by supply alone.

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Analyst Responds to Supply Doubts

When analyst Zach Rector questioned whether exchange balance numbers were accurate, the analyst responded clearly.

He said the figures being shared should be viewed as a lower estimate, meaning the real amount of XRP on exchanges is likely higher. According to him, not all exchange wallets are publicly visible.

What a Real Supply Shock Would Look Like

The analyst also explained what would actually qualify as a supply shock. In his view, it would take an extreme event — such as someone trying to buy 30 billion XRP at once. Short of that, he says XRP supply remains widely available.

He also said that Ripple has stated it helps facilitate XRP supply transfers, including for ETF-related activity.

But What About Falling Exchange Balances?

Recent on-chain data shows XRP balances on centralized exchanges dropping sharply in 2025. Figures suggest exchange-held XRP fell from over 4 billion earlier this year to around 1.6–1.7 billion by late December. Around 750 million XRP reportedly moved off exchanges in recent weeks.

While such moves often signal lower selling pressure, the analyst says this does not automatically mean a supply shortage.

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