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There is a distinct divergence in the Bitcoin-altcoin market cycle, according to economist Henrik Zeberg. Zeberg and data from Swissblock Technologies suggest that the cryptocurrency market may have once again entered a unique Altcoin Season, when altcoins perform better than Bitcoin in terms of momentum and price action.
Bitcoin's cycle
A visual index linked to BTC dominance is used on the chart to track altseason and Bitcoin season cycles. Conditions for the altseason are met each time the red zone crosses the 50 mark. The chart displays a number of prior waves, with notable ones occurring in March, October and now July 2025.
The definition of Altseason 👇 https://t.co/nhigDsBh0Z
— Henrik Zeberg (@HenrikZeberg) July 29, 2025
A classic signal is the current rise in altcoin dominance, followed by a decline in BTC dominance. The market is turning its attention away from Bitcoin and toward other cryptocurrencies. CoinMarketCap's Altcoin Season Index (ASI), which is currently at 38, provides more proof. It is still below the 50 mark, but it has increased dramatically from last month's reading of 23.
Altcoins in action
Furthermore, the performance chart demonstrates that over the last 90 days, leading altcoins such as SPX (+280%), PENGU (+266%) and HYPE (+138%) have significantly outperformed Bitcoin. Ethereum is also advancing well, rising more than 111%. The price action of Bitcoin, however, indicates otherwise. With insufficient volume and conviction to break out, Bitcoin is still trapped in a horizontal range just below its most recent highs of $120,000.
The macro signal that risk appetite is increasing and investors are moving down the market cap ladder in pursuit of higher returns is supported by the apparent decline on the Bitcoin dominance chart.
Zeberg's point is simple: altcoins typically see the largest gains during genuine bull cycles, even though Bitcoin continues to be the foundation of cryptocurrency. If this pattern holds we might be at the beginning of a broad altcoin rally that is fueled by a wave of speculative capital rotation as well as technical breakouts.