coinjournal.net
- Stellar (XLM) price eyes a breakout as bullish on-chain signals strengthen.
- TVL has surged 11x in 4 months, showing rising investor confidence.
- Derivatives data and RSI hint at a possible bullish reversal.
Stellar’s native token XLM appears to be on the cusp of a significant price breakout as a confluence of technical and on-chain indicators points to a potential bullish reversal in the days ahead.
After weathering a challenging June, where the price retreated nearly 28% from mid-May highs, the token is showing signs of renewed strength driven by investor sentiment, funding trends, and robust blockchain activity.
XLM has steadied after the June slump
As of June 26, 2025, Stellar (XLM) trades at approximately $0.2352, reflecting a 3.2% decline in the past 24 hours, but marking a recovery of nearly 6% earlier this week.
XLM has remained trapped in a descending channel for nearly 45 days, dampening investor sentiment.
However, the token now trades near the channel’s upper boundary—a level often linked to breakout potential.
Despite the declining market cap, which currently stands around $7.34 billion, on-chain fundamentals suggest mounting confidence in the project, hinting that price may soon follow sentiment.
Rising Stellar total value locked has sparked optimism
One of the most striking signals comes from Stellar’s total value locked (TVL), which has surged from a low of $7.2 million in 2024 to over $95.28 million, according to DefilLama.
This TVL increase signals an elevenfold increase in just four months.
This sharp rise in TVL, despite a price drop, implies that investors are committing capital into Stellar’s ecosystem with growing conviction, likely betting on long-term fundamentals rather than short-term volatility.
The TVL trend reflects increasing usage of Stellar-based DeFi platforms such as Scopuly, which recently hinted at a breakout being imminent and placed a target around the $0.46 level.
Address activity and sentiment strengthen the bullish stance
Beyond TVL, Stellar’s on-chain usage also supports the bullish case, as reflected in rising monthly active addresses and a surge in recurring user activity.
According to Dune Analytics, May recorded 263,250 active addresses, including 173,670 recurring and 89,590 new users, indicating increasing participation across the network.
This increase in address activity, combined with Santiment’s weighted sentiment flipping positive around the $0.225 level, points to fading fear and a return of speculative confidence.
Technical indicators signal a possible bullish reversal
From a charting perspective, the $0.253 resistance level has emerged as a critical short-term hurdle that bulls must clear to confirm a breakout from the current bearish structure.
If XLM manages a daily close above this resistance, analysts expect a double-digit rally toward the $0.285 region, and possibly higher toward $0.40, where previous sell-offs began in mid-May.
The RSI, currently at above 37, has recovered from oversold territory and could reinforce bullish momentum if it breaks above the neutral 50 level in the coming sessions.
Similarly, the MACD is approaching a bullish crossover, which would add another layer of confirmation for technical traders looking for a long entry.
With the $0.2280 support holding firm and resistance at $0.2703 within reach, XLM may soon determine its short-term fate depending on how the price behaves at the critical $0.253 zone.
If the bulls maintain momentum and break this barrier, a multi-week rally could unfold, driven not by hype but by deep-rooted investor interest and expanding on-chain fundamentals.