Risk-On Sentiment Returns as Ceasefire News Sends Crypto Up and Oil Prices Down

The cryptocurrency market has staged a recovery after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a “complete and total” ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel. The move, which de-escalates the Israel-Iran conflict, sparked a surge in risk appetite among investors, sending Bitcoin 3% higher to reclaim the key $105,000 level.

The market-wide rally began late Monday after President Trump’s announcement on Truth Social was followed by confirmations from senior Iranian officials, according to Reuters. The de-escalation caused a sharp reversal from the risk-off sentiment that had gripped markets.

Ceasefire Sparks Broad Market Rally

Markets responded swiftly and decisively. Bitcoin, already recovering from weekend lows of $98,500, surged another 3% on the news, briefly crossing $106,000 before stabilizing near $105,300.

Ethereum, XRP, and Solana followed suit with 8%–10% gains, and US stock futures rose 0.5% across the board. Meanwhile, crude oil plummeted to $65 a barrel, shedding the inflationary pressure that had loomed over markets just hours earlier.

Bitcoin: A Stronger Floor, A Clearer Ceiling?

Bitcoin’s rebound wasn’t just emotional–it was technical. The $100,000 level, long viewed as both milestone and magnet, has now proven itself as key support.

With a Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 58, Bitcoin remains in a sweet spot: bullish, but not yet overbought. This suggests room for further upside without the risk of immediate profit-taking.

Source: TradingView

Importantly, BTC is trading well above its 50-week exponential moving average (around $86,000), indicating robust medium-term strength. The expanding gap between its 200-week and 500-week EMA supports the thesis of sustained buying pressure.

Capital Keeps Flowing: Institutions Are Buying the Dip

Fundamentals are backing up the optimism as digital asset funds have now seen 10 straight weeks of inflows, with $1.24 billion pouring in during the latest period alone. Year-to-date, crypto investment products have attracted a staggering $15 billion. Bitcoin dominates with $12.7 billion, while Ethereum has contributed over $2.4 billion.

Related: Pompliano Launches $1B ProCap as Strategy Adds 245 BTC During Dip

Even smaller tokens like Solana and XRP are capturing millions in new capital. Regionally, the US is driving the surge, with $1.25 billion in inflows this week and $14.3 billion so far this year.

Macro Factors Aligning

Also, the Federal Reserve, in its fourth consecutive meeting, held interest rates steady at 4.25%–4.5%, reflecting its caution amid uncertain global trade dynamics and now-improving geopolitical tensions.

Related: Metaplanet’s Bitcoin Strategy Aims to Acquire 1% of the Total BTC Supply by 2027

The price of oil, a major inflation driver, has come down significantly, and gold is hovering near $3,388 as a traditional hedge against volatility.