thecryptobasic.com
XRP is repeating a structural pattern that led to massive price explosions twice in its history, with the latest occurrence targeting a two-digit price.
For context, this pattern involves a breakout above the 21-period exponential moving average (EMA) on the 2-week chart and a subsequent retest of this breakout. Notably, market commentator EGRAG Crypto discussed the latest repetition in a recent analysis.
His analysis comes amid the indecisiveness that has dominated the XRP market. Particularly, XRP has failed to transcend the $2 region. Despite this, EGRAG’s analysis shows this could be part of the broader plan.
XRP’s Historical Performance
Notably, this pattern also played out during both times its price skyrocketed following a breakout above the 21 EMA. Specifically, after trading below the 21 EMA from late 2016 to early 2017, XRP eventually broke above the resistance in March 2017, soaring to a new all-time high of $0.3988 by May 2017.
However, while XRP remained above the 21 EMA during this period, the $0.3988 top led to a pullback. Despite the pullback, XRP maintained its support at the 21 EMA, occasionally retesting it to build strength. Finally, another upsurge occurred in November 2017, leading to a new all-time high of $3.8 in January 2018.
This exact price action re-occurred in the 2020/2021 cycle. Notably, XRP broke above the 21 EMA in November 2020, soaring 177% in one month to a high of $0.79.
Nonetheless, it faced a pullback after hitting this peak, correcting again to retest the 21 EMA, which flipped to support. After three months, XRP recovered, surging to $1.96 by April 2021. For context, this period saw muted price growth likely due to the ongoing Ripple vs. SEC lawsuit.
XRP Observing a Similar Retest of the 21 EMA
Interestingly, this pattern is playing out again in the ongoing bull run. First, XRP broke above the 21 EMA with a massive 283% spike in November 2024. It extended these gains to claim $3.4 by January 2025. However, the $3.4 high led to another retracement, and XRP has since been consolidating around $2, retesting the 21 EMA support.
Notably, in the 2017/2018 bull run, this consolidation lasted for six months before a 1,309% spike. Meanwhile, in the 2020/2021 bull market, the consolidation lasted for three months before a 295% increase.
Currently, the ongoing consolidation has lasted for five months. EGRAG believes XRP could witness its much-needed recovery in July, with the rally extending to September. The analyst expects the upsurge to push prices to between $10 and $46, representing a 500% to 2,500% increase.
However, EGRAG suggested that this translates to an average price target of $29 by September. With XRP currently trading at $2.23, a push to $29 would mark a 1,200% increase from current levels.
Interestingly, EGRAG has previously suggested XRP could reach the $29 target. Back in April 2025, he identified a potential uptick in the XRP/BTC pair, which could lead to an XRP price of $29 if Bitcoin hits $170,000. Also, on multiple occasions, he has predicted a run to $27, a slightly lower target.