Col. macgregor on costly Iran invasion decreases ceasefire odds

Col. Macgregor’s remarks emphasize Iran’s defensive capabilities and its intent to control war terms. The odds of a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 are at 8% YES, down from 10% yesterday and 26% a week ago.

Macgregor supports air and missile strikes over a costly ground invasion. The April 15 market is at 18% YES, showing skepticism about a near-term ceasefire. A notable shift occurred between April 15 and April 30, with a 20-point jump indicating traders expect a mid-April catalyst.

Trading data shows $1,365,780 in USDC traded in the last 24 hours across all sub-markets, with a 4-point spike on April 30 odds being the largest move. It takes $15,138 to shift April 7 odds by 5 points, indicating moderate liquidity.

Macgregor’s comments highlight the challenges of a land invasion but don’t provide new facts or official statements. The ceasefire market remains pessimistic without diplomatic progress. At 8¢, a YES share for April 7 pays $1 if resolved, offering a 12.5x return for those betting on a quick diplomatic breakthrough.

Watch for Trump’s April 1 address for potential changes in rhetoric or involvement from intermediaries like Oman or Qatar. Confirmed negotiations or back-channel meetings could significantly alter the odds.